The IEA said work from home and fly less. Portugal's government said no.

Good morning, Lisbon. It's Monday, 11 May. Twenty degrees, partly cloudy. Fuel prices are falling this week. The government says summer travel is safe. The data says otherwise.

🌬️ AIR QUALITY: 24 (Good).

🗞️ TOP STORY

THE IEA RECOMMENDED REMOTE WORKING AND FEWER FLIGHTS. PORTUGAL'S GOVERNMENT SAID NO.

On Thursday, Energy Minister Maria da Graça Carvalho told journalists in Brussels that the government will not recommend remote working or a reduction in air travel despite the ongoing oil crisis. "The issue of teleworking is not yet on the table for us," she said. "There are many ways to get to work, and we are not even discussing that issue yet."

On the question of air travel, she was equally direct. "People have a right to their holidays and to travel," she said. "Tourism accounts for 15% of our GDP. I would not want to be here making a recommendation to avoid it."

The IEA had recommended both measures as part of a 10-point demand reduction plan published in March. The agency estimated that a 40% reduction in business flights alone could cut jet fuel demand by 7 to 15%. Several EU countries have already adopted elements of the plan. Portugal has not.

The minister's confidence rests on a specific claim: Portugal's fuel supply is secured. Aviation fuel from Galp and Repsol is guaranteed through the end of August, she said, with contingency plans for the period beyond. Galp's domestic refinery at Sines sources its crude primarily from Brazil, which insulates Portugal somewhat from the Strait of Hormuz disruption. "They have plans B and C," she said. "Let's hope it ends before August."

The broader European picture is less reassuring. Goldman Sachs estimates that Europe's commercial jet fuel inventories will fall below the IEA's critical 23-day shortage threshold in June. The UK appears most at risk of jet fuel rationing. Rystad Energy's chief economist told Fortune this week that "we're still kind of sleepwalking into this approaching disaster." Spirit Airlines shut down operations in the US after failed bailout talks. Jet fuel prices averaged $181 per barrel in the first week of May, according to IATA. American Airlines estimated its 2026 fuel expenses at $4 billion higher than last year.

For anyone reading this who works remotely and flies regularly, the practical implications are worth thinking about now rather than in July. Portugal's government is betting that supply holds and summer continues as normal. That bet may be right. But the margin is narrowing, and the difference between "secured until August" and "secured" is the kind of distinction that matters when you are booking flights for July.

Bottom line: The government has chosen not to follow the IEA's recommendations. Portugal's fuel supply is secured through August. Europe's is not. If you are planning summer travel, book early, buy flexible tickets, and watch the fuel situation week by week. The minister's optimism may hold. The data suggests it is a closer call than she made it sound.

⚡ QUICK HITS

Fuel prices are falling this week. The first decline in several weeks: diesel and petrol are both expected to drop at the pump from today. The dip reflects a brief softening in Brent crude as markets process the ceasefire extension. Whether it holds depends on what happens with the Strait and the June supply threshold. Enjoy it while it lasts.

Portugal is the EU country that uses TVDE services the most. A Eurostat finding that landed as one of TPN's most-viewed stories this week. Portugal leads the EU in ride-hailing usage per capita, ahead of Estonia, France, and the Netherlands. That makes the TVDE sector's problems (blocked immigrant drivers, below-cost fares, an unfinished legal framework) a bigger structural issue than in any other EU country. The system more people depend on than anywhere else in Europe is also the one under the most strain.

Wild animals will disappear from Portuguese circuses this summer. A voluntary agreement has been reached to retire all wild animals from circus performances in Portugal. The transition begins this summer. A genuinely good news story, and a reminder that not everything in this newsletter is about inflation and strikes.

🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY

DARWIN'S CAFÉ (BELÉM)

You have almost certainly driven past the Champalimaud Foundation without knowing you could walk in. The building sits on the Belém waterfront between the Torre de Belém and the Doca de Pedrouços marina, a vast curved structure designed by Indian architect Charles Correa that houses one of Europe's leading biomedical research centres. It looks like a place that requires a security pass. It does not. You can walk straight in, and when you do, you will find Darwin's Café.

The restaurant is named after Charles Darwin, and the design takes the theme seriously. The room is large, high-ceilinged, and covered in illustrated wallpapers of fish, insects, and botanical drawings. Oversized red lamps hang from above. Darwin's name is displayed in physical typography across the middle of the space. Bookshelves, picture frames, and quotes line the walls. It is part restaurant, part cabinet of curiosities, and the effect is theatrical without being silly.

Chef António Runa runs a menu of contemporary Portuguese and international dishes. The duck risotto with orange is the signature. The bacalhau, the lobster in puff pastry, and the black risotto with salmon, mushrooms, and coriander all get consistent praise. Main courses run €12.50 to €25, which for the setting and the quality is genuinely good value. The wine list is strong. The couvert (bread, olives, cheese, pâté) is worth ordering before you look at anything else.

The terrace is the real reason to come. A wide outdoor area directly on the river, with sun protection for the warmer months, views of the 25 de Abril Bridge to the left and the Torre de Belém to the right, and the kind of panorama that makes you wonder why this restaurant isn't more famous. Scientists from the research centre eat here on their lunch breaks. Families with children come for the kids' menu and the waterfront space. On a Monday afternoon in May, it is one of the calmest and most beautiful places to eat in the city.

→ It's not cheap. See what 2,600 reviewers say is actually worth ordering ←

Avenida Brasília, Ala B, Fundação Champalimaud, Belém. Monday: lunch only, 12:30pm to 4pm. Tuesday to Sunday: lunch 12:30-3:30pm, tea 4:30-6:30pm, dinner 7:30-11pm. Tram 15. Parking available. Reservations recommended, especially for the terrace: +351 21 048 0222 or [email protected].

Insider tip: Today is Monday, which means lunch only. Go between 1pm and 2pm for the terrace before it fills. If you miss today, come back on a Tuesday or Wednesday evening when the terrace at sunset is one of Lisbon's best-kept secrets. After lunch, walk through the Champalimaud Foundation grounds. The architecture alone is worth the trip.

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See you tomorrow morning.