Good morning, Lisbon. It's Thursday, April 16, and we're looking at clear skies and 19°C. The Iran ceasefire expires next Tuesday, the Italian Film Festival is into its closing weekend, and Lula arrives in Lisbon the same day as the deadline. Let's get into it.
🌬️ AIR QUALITY: Good (around 25).
🗞️ TOP STORY
THE WAR THAT'S NOW IN YOUR INFLATION DATA.
Quick recap, because the news has moved fast and a lot of it has happened over Easter and weekends. On Sunday, after 21 hours of failed peace talks in Islamabad, Trump ordered a US Navy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. It took effect Monday afternoon Lisbon time. By yesterday, daily shipping traffic through the strait was down more than 90% from pre-war levels. Brent crude touched $101 a barrel on Monday before settling around $95 by Tuesday. The two-week US-Iran ceasefire that's nominally still in effect expires next Tuesday, April 21 — the same day, as it happens, that Lula arrives in Lisbon for his state visit.
Here's why it matters for anyone reading this from Portugal. INE confirmed on Monday that Portuguese inflation accelerated to 2.7% in March, the highest reading since August 2025. The single biggest driver was energy, which jumped 5.8% after a 2.2% February decline. Portugal is unusually exposed: the country imports the vast majority of its energy, has minimal domestic production, and sources LNG through markets directly affected by the Strait, which normally carries about 20% of global oil and LNG. The IMF cut its 2026 eurozone growth forecast on Tuesday from 1.3% to 1.1%. The March data captures conditions before the most recent escalation, which means April's reading is likely to be higher.
What this means in practice, in rough order of how soon you'll feel it:
Fuel. Pumps are already up from a month ago and will go higher if the ceasefire collapses on Tuesday. The Portuguese government has not yet activated the fuel subsidy mechanism it used in 2022, but if Brent stays above $100, expect that conversation to start quickly.
Electricity. Bills lag fuel by 30 to 60 days but the direction is set. If you're on a variable tariff, your next invoice will reflect this. If you're on a fixed contract coming up for renewal, this is a useful moment to check what your renewal rate looks like.
Food. About 30% of global urea (the basis for nitrogen fertiliser) transits the Strait, and Portuguese supermarkets source heavily from Spanish and Italian producers exposed to those input costs. Bread, dairy, and meat tend to move first. Expect this in late April or May.
Bottom line for the next ten days. Watch what happens around Tuesday. If the ceasefire is renewed or talks restart, expect oil to soften and the worst-case inflation scenarios to ease. If it collapses, expect more turbulence. If you've been meaning to lock in a fixed-rate energy contract, fix a mortgage, or front-load a major fuel-intensive purchase, this week is a defensible moment to do it.
⚡ QUICK HITS
Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa is back. The former president, just over a month out of office, launched a new institutional website on Tuesday (gabinetemrs.pt) and began the first event in a series of school lectures and debates in Águeda, Aveiro district. Topic: "Education, vocation, future." For someone whose retirement plans were widely speculated about, the institutional setup and structured speaking series suggest he is not planning to fade quietly.
Citizenship law clock is ticking. Parliament approved the revised Nationality Law on April 1 with a two-thirds majority, and President Seguro has 20 days to sign it, veto it, or refer it to the Constitutional Court — a window that closes around April 21. Seguro is a former Socialist Party leader who has expressed past opposition to the law, which extends the residency requirement for citizenship from five years to ten (seven for CPLP and EU nationals) and starts the clock from the date of first residence card issuance, rather than initial application. Tens of thousands of expats are watching this decision; if you're one of them, the next ten days matter.
🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY
Garum is the newer of the two restaurants run by chefs Filipe Rodrigues and Hugo Gouveia in Graça — Rodrigues is the man behind A Taberna do Mar nearby, and the inventor of the now-famous grilled sardine nigiri that became one of the most-imitated dishes in contemporary Lisbon. Garum is a different proposition: smaller, more focused, built around fish and wine, and named after the Roman fermented fish sauce that has been produced along Portugal's Atlantic coast since antiquity. The room is intimate and slightly theatrical, the kind of place where the chef will walk over to talk you through the dish if he sees you hesitating.
The format is a tasting menu, around €35, that runs to roughly twelve small dishes built around whatever fish came in that morning — tuna tartare, fried cod, crudo, oven-baked branzino, the inevitable sardine nigiri, often a tuna steak sandwich, sometimes a black sesame brûlée or carob volcano cake to finish. The Portuguese-Japanese fusion is not a gimmick; Rodrigues spent years cooking in Japanese restaurants in Lisbon before opening his own places, and the technique earns its place in every dish.
The room is small enough that reservations are essential. Some reviewers have noted the portions are deliberately tasting-menu-sized rather than full-meal, so come understanding the format and you'll leave delighted; come expecting a heavy dinner and you might not. Cash is preferred over cards. Around €35 per person for the tasting menu, drinks extra.
Insider tip: If they're running the sardine nigiri that night, its worth a try as one of their signature dishes on the menu.
📅 WHAT'S ON
Louane (Tonight, Thu April 16) LAV Lisboa Ao Vivo. French pop.
Domi [PT] (Tomorrow, Fri April 17) Sacramento do Chiado. Intimate late-night show.
Italian Film Festival closing gala (Sat April 18) Coliseu dos Recreios. Tribute to Claudia Cardinale.
Vhils at MUDE (ongoing, through May 3) Almost two decades of work from Portugal's most internationally recognised street artist, who carves portraits directly into walls. Includes his CLAY azulejo tile collection.
Todd Webb in Portugal, Gulbenkian (ongoing, through July 27) New photography exhibition at Fundação Calouste Gulbenkian. Worth an afternoon.
From Plate to Print, Museu do Oriente (ongoing, through August 9) New show exploring ceramics and printmaking.
Lula arrives in Lisbon (Tue April 21) Official state visit — also the day the US-Iran ceasefire is set to expire.
Liberty Day (Sat April 25) Public holiday. Carnation Revolution celebrations along Avenida da Liberdade.
See you tomorrow morning.
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