Portuguese workers have stopped changing jobs. The reason isn't good news.

Good morning, Lisbon. It's Tuesday, 26 May. Thirty-three degrees today. The first proper heatwave of the year. Bad Bunny plays the Estádio da Luz tonight. And the Portuguese job market just sent a signal worth paying attention to.

🌬️ AIR QUALITY: 24 (Good).

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PORTUGUESE WORKERS HAVE STOPPED CHANGING JOBS. HERE'S WHAT THAT TELLS YOU.

The Randstad Employer Brand Research study, published last week, surveyed more than 4,000 professionals in Portugal. The headline finding: only 23% intend to change jobs this year. Stability is now the dominant trend in the Portuguese labour market.

That number matters because of what it says beneath the surface. Workers are not staying because they are happy. The study found the same complaints as every previous year: pay is too low, career advancement is limited, and work-life balance is poor. The reasons for wanting to leave haven't changed. What changed is the confidence to actually do it.

The timing is not a coincidence. The Trabalho XXI labour reform is heading to parliament. Fixed-term contracts are being extended from two to three years. Outsourcing rules are being loosened. The right to reinstatement after unfair dismissal is being weakened for companies of all sizes. A general strike is eight days away. When the rules governing your employment are being rewritten and nobody knows what the final version will look like, staying put is the rational choice.

For anyone running a business in Portugal, this is a double-edged signal. On one side, your retention numbers look better. People aren't leaving. On the other, they aren't leaving because they feel they can't, not because they're satisfied. That is not loyalty. It is caution dressed up as stability, and it tends to show up later as disengagement, lower productivity, and a talent exodus the moment confidence returns.

For anyone working in Portugal and thinking about a move, the study reflects what you probably already feel. The market is tighter than the unemployment rate suggests. Fewer positions are being created at the senior level. Companies are cautious about hiring. The inflation squeeze (3.36% in April, fresh food at 7.45%) means even a salary increase of 5% feels like treading water rather than getting ahead.

The OECD's January survey noted that Portugal has the second most rigid labour market in the OECD. The Trabalho XXI reform is the government's attempt to change that. Whether making it easier to hire and fire actually encourages workers to move, or whether it makes them cling harder to whatever stability they have, is the question the 23% figure is already answering.

Bottom line: Workers aren't moving. Not because the market is good, but because everything around it feels uncertain. The general strike on June 3 and the parliamentary debate on labour reform will determine whether this caution is temporary or becomes the new normal.

⚡ QUICK HITS

Lisbon is hitting 33°C today. The first proper heatwave of the year. If your flat doesn't have AC (and most don't), now is the time to buy a portable unit before they sell out. Museums are air-conditioned and free on the first Sunday of each month. The river beaches at Costa da Caparica are a 30-minute bus from Praça de Espanha. Stay hydrated, stay out of the sun between 1pm and 4pm, and check on elderly neighbours.

Porto just launched a daily direct flight to New York. Francisco Sá Carneiro Airport now has a direct transatlantic service to NYC, the first from a Portuguese airport outside Lisbon. For US expats in Portugal, this changes the equation: Porto is 2h45 by Alfa Pendular from Lisbon and the airport is newer, smaller, and not dealing with the same EES chaos as Humberto Delgado.

The government has formally refused to suspend the EES. The Ministry of Internal Administration said Portugal "maintains its commitment" to the system and "no suspension is foreseen." RENA, the airlines association, says average border control times per passenger have increased 4 to 5 times the usual level. Moedas called for suspension. Ryanair called for suspension. The government said no. If you are flying this summer, the airport situation is now confirmed as not changing.

🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY

NOOBAI CAFÉ (MIRADOURO DE SANTA CATARINA)

On a 33-degree day, the only recommendation that makes sense is a terrace with a breeze and a cold drink overlooking the river. Noobai is that place.

The café sits on the Miradouro de Santa Catarina, also known as the Adamastor viewpoint, tucked to the right of the stone giant who has been staring out at the Tagus since 1927. The terrace faces south across the river, the 25 de Abril Bridge, and the south bank. On a clear evening the light turns everything golden and the whole terrace notices at the same time.

The name means "we go" in Creole, which tells you something about the spirit of the place. The menu is Mediterranean and unpretentious: tapas, grilled octopus, chicken curry, tuna steak, salads, and a warm mushroom salad that gets mentioned in reviews more than almost anything else. The cocktails are well made. The sangria is built for afternoons that turn into evenings. The caipirinhas are strong. Craft beer and wine by the glass for those who prefer something simpler.

Three terraces (two outdoor, one covered), blankets on cooler evenings, and occasional DJ sets and small concerts after dark. The crowd is a mix of locals and visitors who found the viewpoint and decided to stay for a drink. On a Tuesday afternoon in a heatwave, this is exactly where you want to be.

→ Find their terrace, hours, and how to book right here ←

Miradouro de Santa Catarina, between Bairro Alto and Santos.

Insider tip: Arrive at 5pm on a hot day. The terrace is filling but not full, the sun is past its worst, and you have three hours of golden light before sunset. Order the warm mushroom salad and a glass of something cold. That's your Tuesday evening sorted.

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See you tomorrow morning.