Portugal’s immigration numbers make no sense

Two official counts of immigration to Portugal are pointing in opposite directions. It’s Friday, 13 November. Twenty degrees. Air quality: 10 to 31 (Good). Here’s what you need to know.

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TWO OFFICIAL COUNTS OF IMMIGRATION TO PORTUGAL POINT IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

Depending on the source, immigration to Portugal either more than doubled in 2025 or fell sharply. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the OECD, published its International Migration Outlook on Thursday, counting 319,000 new long-term immigrants in 2025, up 130% on 2024. Figures from INE, the national statistics institute, point the other way, with 254,000 immigrants in 2025, down from 394,000 the year before, a drop of 140,000.

The two aren’t measuring quite the same thing. The OECD’s figure covers people given a long-term right to stay, whether for work, family or humanitarian reasons. Neither report reconciles its number with the other’s. On the OECD’s count, Portugal went against the wider trend, because permanent migration across OECD countries fell for a second year in 2025, by 1.6% to 6.1 million people.

The OECD report also shows who is arriving. Three in four came with a job contract, only 12% came from elsewhere in the EU, and 6% came through family reunification or reception schemes. Brazil, Angola and Cape Verde were the top countries of origin.

It also shows where they work. Foreign workers make up almost a quarter of staff in hotels and restaurants, and around 16% to 19% in construction, IT and communications, and transport. One in four works for a firm in the least productive fifth of its sector, and only about one in nine for a firm in the most productive fifth. Portugal was one of seven OECD countries where immigrants’ employment and unemployment rates both improved in 2025.

Movement runs the other way too. Around 61,000 Portuguese left the country in 2024. Switzerland was the top destination, taking 20% of them, ahead of Spain on 19% and France on 13%.

Bottom line: whichever count is closer to the truth, the OECD data shows that most people moving to Portugal come to work, and that they make up a large share of the staff in hotels, restaurants and building sites.

⚡ QUICK HITS

The government is defending its Storm Charles shutdown. André Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega party, accused the government of exaggerating the warnings and said telling people to stay at home shouldn’t be the default response to a crisis. He called for a graduated plan setting out when the country should shut and when business can carry on, and warned that overcautious messaging could lead people to ignore the next warning. Interior Minister Luís Neves rejected claims the measures were excessive, saying the state has to stop being reactive and calling the storm a test of its response. Web Summit’s founder and CEO, Paddy Cosgrave, called the government’s decision the right one. Organisers are still working out what losing Wednesday cost and will look at compensation for affected companies case by case.

Web Summit’s founder has backed the housing protests outside his own event. Cosgrave told journalists that a generation across Europe has had its future taken from it and is right to be angry and protest. Activists from the Lisbon housing encampment held their “Camp Summit” next to the venue on Thursday and are due to meet President António José Seguro at Belém Palace, the presidential residence, this morning. On Saturday, Casa para Viver, a coalition of housing groups, holds a national housing march. It wants rent caps that are actually affordable, an end to home-buying by real estate investment funds, and the government’s proposed rental reform dropped.

Ryanair’s airport check-in and bag drop now close an hour before departure. The change took effect on Tuesday, moving the cut-off from 40 minutes to 60. It applies to passengers checking in or dropping bags at the airport, around one in five of Ryanair’s customers. Those who check in online and fly with cabin bags only can go straight to security, but still have to reach the gate before boarding closes. Passengers who miss the cut-off may have to pay to move to a later flight, and Ryanair hasn’t said how much that would cost.

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🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY

OKONOMIYAKI BY HONDA (PICOAS)

The star here is okonomiyaki, the savoury Japanese pancake of cabbage, bean sprouts, egg and meat, and the kitchen makes both regional styles. The Hiroshima version is layered with noodles and comes in a vegetarian option. The Osaka version skips the noodles and comes with chicken or pork, topped with dried tuna flakes. Both are finished with mayonnaise and a sweet soy-based sauce and come with sides such as miso soup, a spring roll or pickled turnip. The rest of the menu runs to set plates with two or three sides, from beef or black pork yakiniku (Japanese barbecue) and chicken karaage (Japanese fried chicken) to katsu curry, beef curry udon and yaki udon (stir-fried noodles).

The room is tiny, with about a dozen seats, Japanese music videos on the TV and manga drawings on the walls. The chef, known as Honda, is from Nepal and cooked in Japan for ten years before coming to Lisbon, where he also runs a ramen bar in Martim Moniz. He says Japanese diners have told him it’s among the best okonomiyaki they’ve had in Europe. To drink, there’s Asahi, sake served hot or cold, Japanese whisky and a short wine list.

It’s open Monday to Saturday for lunch and dinner and closed on Sundays. With so few seats, it’s a place to eat and go rather than linger, and groups may struggle to get a table.

→ Find them here ←

Insider tip: noodles can be added to the Osaka okonomiyaki for an extra euro, which turns it into a bigger meal.

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