How did Portugal miss almost 944,000 immigrants?

Portugal’s official immigration figures were out by almost a million. It’s Tuesday, 3 November. Twenty-one degrees. Air quality: 32 to 53 (Good to Moderate). Here’s what you need to know.

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PORTUGAL’S IMMIGRATION WAS FAR BIGGER THAN ITS STATISTICS SHOWED

Between 2021 and 2024, Portugal recorded 1,575,409 immigration movements, according to revised figures from INE, the national statistics institute. The old count was 631,141. That’s almost 944,000 more arrivals than the old figures showed, or about 1,080 a day for four years. The change comes from a new method INE introduced in June. Instead of relying on surveys, it now draws on records from AIMA, the immigration agency, schools, the tax authority, social security and civil identification, and it counts people who were stuck in AIMA’s backlog in the year they arrived.

Every year was revised up by at least 122%. The peak was 2022, with 495,979 arrivals, nearly three times the earlier figure. Foreign nationals made up 77% of the total, and nine in ten of them were from outside the EU, with the rest Portuguese citizens returning or moving to Portugal for the first time. Arrivals were young, too. More than half were aged between 20 and 30, and around 204,000 were children aged 14 or under.

The pace has since dropped sharply. In 2025, Portugal recorded 254,253 arrivals, down 36% on the year before, and arrivals of foreign nationals almost halved. Departures were also undercounted. An analysis by the news site Página Um puts permanent departures between 2021 and 2024 at about 602,000, almost five times the old estimate, and that includes people of every nationality. The figures count movements, not individual people, so someone who arrived, left and came back counts more than once.

Some of those leaving are Brazilian. By the end of August, 677 people in Portugal had signed up for the International Organisation for Migration’s voluntary return programme, which pays for flights home. Of the 297 it had helped so far, 249 were Brazilian, and Brazilian requests for help this year have already passed the totals for 2024 and 2025. The head of its Portugal office, Vasco Malta, blames the difficulty of getting residence papers, unstable jobs and low wages.

Bottom line: Portugal took in far more people than its statistics showed, which puts the strain on housing and public services in a new light, but arrivals have since slowed and more people were leaving than the old figures suggested.

⚡ QUICK HITS

A court has ruled that police can’t break up a Rossio protest just because it’s past 12:30am. Lisbon’s administrative court found on Sunday that the 12:30am limit on demonstrations doesn’t apply automatically, and allowed one protester, Renata Cambra, to stay in Rossio with a tent day and night until the final budget vote on 24 November, working around the square’s Christmas market. The interior ministry says the ruling covers her alone, not a collective camp, and prosecutors are required to appeal to the Constitutional Court. Protesters returned to the square on Monday evening to celebrate. Separately, 78 organisations from nine countries have called for an independent investigation into the police operation in Porto on 15 October.

The government is due to sign the sale of up to 49.9% of TAP to Lufthansa today. The first stage is worth up to €1.201 billion, and the state keeps 50.1%. Lufthansa has also offered to buy the rest, for €863 million in cash and €488 million in its own shares, and the infrastructure minister, Miguel Pinto Luz, now favours selling the whole airline, according to SIC Notícias. For passengers, nothing changes yet. The deal keeps the TAP name, its head office and the Lisbon hub, protects flights to the islands, and keeps TAP in the Star Alliance. It still needs regulatory approval.

LG faces a class action in Portugal over claims its smart TVs can listen in. The consumer association Citizens Voice wants some LG models withdrawn from sale and free repairs for owners, and has also named FNAC and Worten. The case builds on a September investigation by researchers who say some LG OLED TVs could record audio even with the screen off. LG denies this. It says voice recognition only starts when you use the wake word or the voice button, and that content recognition and targeted adverts are optional and off by default. If you own an LG TV, you can check those settings in the TV’s menu.

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🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY

DEDE’S (LAPA)

The dish to order at Dede’s is the okonomiyaki, the Japanese savoury pancake, which reviewers single out as a must-try. It sets the tone for a brunch menu shaped by years spent in Australia and Asia, built around whatever’s in season at the grocer down the road, and served from opening to close. Regulars also rate the bowls, the freshly squeezed orange juice and the coffee, with one reviewer calling the latte the best they’d found in weeks of Lisbon brunches.

The café sits on Rua de Sant’Ana à Lapa, in a small room. There are plenty of vegetarian and vegan options, and the kitchen is happy to work around other dietary needs.

The menu is short, so don’t expect pages of choice, and the room is small, so it can fill up at peak brunch hours. It’s open every day from 9am to 4pm.

→ Find them here ←

Insider tip: get the okonomiyaki as your main and leave room for the homemade banana bread, which comes up in review after review.

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See you tomorrow morning.

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