Housing just triggered an election next door

Spain called a snap election yesterday. Portugal went the other way. It's Tuesday, 6 October. Twenty-two degrees. Air quality: 45 (Good). Here's what you need to know.

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SPAIN HEADS TO THE POLLS AS PORTUGAL'S BUDGET HEADS FOR SAFE PASSAGE

On Monday morning, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap general election for 29 November. A few hours later in Lisbon, President António José Seguro used his first Republic Day speech to make the case for political stability and deals between parties that last beyond a single parliament.

Spain's election was triggered by housing. On Friday, Congress voted down two government decrees on the housing crisis, with the PP, Spain's main conservative party, the far-right Vox and the Catalan pro-independence party Junts all voting against. Sánchez took the weekend to decide, then dissolved parliament. Spain's two biggest unions, UGT and CCOO, have since agreed to call a general strike over housing.

In Portugal, Seguro spoke at the Republic Day ceremony in Praça do Município, outside Lisbon City Hall. He called for "durable solutions" and cross-party compromise, and listed what he sees as the country's weak spots: administrative decisions that come too late, slow licensing and court cases that drag on for years. He also welcomed the move by the PS, the Socialist Party, towards the government on next year's budget, and said he hoped other parties would join in.

That move all but guarantees the 2027 State Budget passes. Last Wednesday, PS leader José Luís Carneiro said he'll propose that his party abstain, citing guarantees from Prime Minister Luís Montenegro on constitutional revision, pensions and the PRR, the EU-funded Recovery and Resilience Plan. With the PS abstaining, the minority government has the votes it needs. Not everyone is happy: André Ventura of the hard-right Chega said the PS had made the budget "useless", and Paulo Raimundo of the PCP, the Communist Party, called the abstention "a blank cheque".

For Portugal, it means no early election on the horizon and a budget that gets through. What matters now is what's in it. The government presents it to parliament on Friday, and that's when the detail on tax, pensions and housing lands. If you have ties to Spain, through family, property or regular trips, expect a campaign dominated by housing and the possibility of a general strike before polling day.

Bottom line: Portugal's budget looks safe, and Friday is when we find out what's in it.

⚡ QUICK HITS

Unemployment benefit now replaces less of a worker's last wage than it did a decade ago. A Bank of Portugal analysis of Social Security data shows the replacement rate fell from 70% of previous pay in 2015 to 64% in 2025, or 66% with supplements. The reason is that wages have risen faster than the benefit caps, which are tied to the IAS, the Social Support Index used to set many benefits. The average benefit still rose, to €700 a month in 2025. Around 40% of new claimants last year had earned up to €880 a month, and foreign citizens' share of new claimants rose from 2.2% in 2015 to 26.6%. Most people find work again quickly: 60% of those whose benefit ended in 2024 were back in a job within a month, though often on lower pay or in a different sector.

Lisbon and Cascais have been named among the places best placed to attract the next generation of the wealthy. Property consultancy Savills put both in the top 30 destinations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa likely to appeal to people under 40 who have inherited fortunes, expect to, or have built their own. It assessed more than 100 locations on business conditions, connections, tax, wealth management and lifestyle, and measures potential rather than counting arrivals. Lisbon and Cascais scored well on quality of life, restaurants and shops, and prices that are lower than rival luxury markets. Savills Portugal's head of residential in Lisbon, Rita Bueri, said the country still needs better services and simpler procedures to meet these buyers' expectations. The report doesn't look at what it means for housing costs for everyone else.

Cristiano Ronaldo's place in the national team is in doubt after he walked out on the squad. New coach Jorge Jesus, who took over from Roberto Martínez after the World Cup, left the 41-year-old on the bench against Norway. Ronaldo then left the camp in Denmark last Wednesday after being told he wouldn't start the next match, promising to tell "the truth" later. Without him, Portugal beat Denmark 4-2 and then Norway on Sunday to become the first team into the Nations League quarter-finals. On Sunday, Jesus said Ronaldo can come back "if he wants" for November's games. Ronaldo has said this is "probably" his final year in football, though British media are already tipping him for a farewell run next year.

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🍽️ SPOT OF THE DAY

AVÓ (CAMPO DE OURIQUE)

Avó means grandmother, and that's the idea: Portuguese comfort food cooked with a chef's technique. It opened on 9 September on Rua 4 de Infantaria, the new restaurant from Hugo Candeias, named for his own grandmother, Margarida, and the first project of his partnership with Cookbook, the group linked to José Avillez. The room looks like an old family house, with antique objects, lace doilies, plenty of wood and a communal table, plus a bright interior terrace.

The menu is short, seasonal and mostly familiar. Start with a tempura salt cod cake or a pastel de massa tenra, a meat pasty. Mains include razor clam xerém, a cornmeal stew, and an oxtail empadão, a shepherd's pie-style dish, with sharing dishes for two such as chicken cooked in a clay pot. For dessert there's sericaia or A Basqa, Candeias's Basque cheesecake. The all-Portuguese wine list is kindly priced, with several bottles at just €14, low for a Lisbon restaurant, and about 16 wines by the glass. Expect to spend €30 to €50 a head.

Worth knowing before you go: it's open every day from 12:30pm to midnight without a break, so a late lunch at 4pm is no problem. It seats 92, but it's new, so book for dinner.

→ Find them here ←

Insider tip: Candeias says the oxtail empadão has been the star of the first few weeks. Save room for A Basqa, the cheesecake he's been making since his days at Ofício.

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